Electorates are anticipating a close contest between the Awami League's Al Amin Chowdhury and independent candidate Joya Sengupta for the Sunamganj-2 parliamentary constituency - if the balloting is ‘fair and unhindered’.

Joya, the widow of veteran parliamentarian Suranjit Sengupta - an eight-time MP from the Derai-Shalla Upazilas - assumed his parliamentary seat after his death.

In the Jan 7 polls, she is running as an independent candidate with the scissors symbol after she failed to secure the Awami League’s nomination.

Despite her position as an independent candidate, a faction of the Awami League leadership in Derai and Shalla is openly backing the 80-year-old Joya.

This support is anticipated to boost her chances of securing votes from within the ruling party. Her position as a woman could also appeal to female voters, providing her with an extra advantage in the race.

However, supporters of AL candidate Chowdhury Abdullah Al Mahmud, commonly known as Al Amin Chowdhury, believe that the strong voter base in this constituency, known as the 'base of boats,' will stay loyal.

Al Amin, the general secretary of Shalla Upazila Awami League and former Upazila council chairman, is the younger brother of the current police chief, Inspector General of Police Chowdhury Abdullah Al-Mamun.

Their father, Abdul Mannan, co-founded the Shalla Upazila Awami League and was a political associate of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

Supporters of Joya and Al Amin officially took to the campaign trail on Monday after receiving their election symbols.

Both sides are hopeful of a win, their supporters say.

However, when talking to local political activists and voters, they spoke of several factors that will decide the outcome of the election in the absence of the BNP.

These factors include the Hindu community's vote bank, the impact of regionalism, women voters' attitudes, and the role played by the BNP supporters.

Moreover, Suranjit has both personal admirers and political followers in this region. Joya and Al Amin, who views Suranjit as a 'political guru,' will both seek to capitalise on his image in their electoral campaigns.

Derai Upazila is composed of nine unions and a municipality, with a total of 171,282 voters. In contrast, Shalla Upazila has a total of 79,415 voters. Notably, approximately 35 percent of voters in Derai and around 60 percent from Shalla Upazila are Hindu by faith.

Derai has more votes, and Suranjit's residence is in Anwarpur village, the municipal headquarters of this Upazila.

Joya has been actively involved in her husband's electoral campaigns, maintaining strong ties with the civil society, including Awami League leaders and activists in the area.

In contrast, Al Amin's residence is in Shalla Upazila, which has lower voter numbers but a significant Hindu population.

Following Suranjit's death in 2017, Joya won the subsequent by-election by a substantial margin. Later, in the 11th general election, she secured victory with the boat symbol.

Derai Upazila Awami League President Kamal Uddin is optimistic about Joya's prospects, especially when it comes to regionalism as she represents Derai Upazila.

He expressed confidence, saying, "Joya belongs to the Awami League, and the electoral momentum is in her favour.”

“Our party leaders and voters are actively supporting her. Blessed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Joya is expected to secure over 40,000 votes."

Shahid Sardar, the president of the Derai Municipal Committee, said: "[Suranjit Sengupta] was a freedom fighter, and we, as the families of freedom fighters, are actively supporting his wife in the electoral arena.”

He said members of the public, including party leaders and activists, are upset that Joya did not get nominated by the Awami League.

According to him, this snub by the party has delivered a huge groundswell of support for her as an independent candidate, changing the dynamics of the polls.

Joya has won twice running with the boat polls logo, but is walking a separate path this time. The question is: how much support will she get without the boat?

A local Awami League leader pointed to Suranjit's electoral history to provide an answer.

The veteran politician was elected to parliament eight times — thrice with the boat symbol and five times from other parties, he said.

The leader emphasised that the family has a track record of winning regardless of the symbol based on Suranjit's leadership.

Social activist Md Abul Kashem, president of the 'Jago Derai' social organisation, praised Joya for fostering communal harmony and maintaining law and order during her tenure.

He believes people who do not align with any political party also support her because of this factor.

On the other hand, Al Amin, running with the boat symbol, is from an influential family in Shalla Upazila.

He has support from pro-liberation forces and the Hindu community.

The 'Sen family' has controlled the seat for 50 years. However, in 1996, Nasir Uddin Chowdhury from Kulanj village in Derai Upazila was elected under the Jatiya Party. Shalla has never had a member of parliament, leaving locals feeling somewhat deprived.

Many believe that since the boat candidate is from Shalla Upazila, the voters will strongly support Al Amin, considering it a great opportunity for their area.

Lenin Ahmed, the president of Shalla Upazila Awami Swechchhasebak League, said: "Our leader Suranjit has strengthened the party in Derai-Shalla, and we've elected his wife as MP twice."

He said Joya did not get the nomination due to her age.

Lenin believes she should not have run as an independent, adding: “While we respect our leader's wife, we'll support the boat candidate and stay in the field for Al Amin."

Ewar Mia, a former vice president of the Awami League’s Derai Upazila unit, said that they did politics under Suranjit's leadership for their entire lives and voted for him.

Since Suranjit's wife Joya was not nominated to run for parliament this time, they are supporting the party candidate Al Amin and want him to win.

Azadul Islam Ratan, the district AL legal affairs secretary and a Derai Upazila resident, said it is their responsibility to elect the boat candidate.

Leaders and activists from both areas have united in favour of the boat, and he believes its victory is inevitable.

However, Advocate Abani Mohan Das, former chairman of Shalla Upazila Parishad and district AL leader, noted that the Awami League candidate is controversial and raises communal tensions.

He said the ordinary people, as well as party leaders and activists, are supporting Joya for her honesty.

He believes she represents the common people and embodies the principles of the Awami League, and her win is only a matter of time.

Nasir Uddin Chowdhury, known as Suranjit's political disciple, was a parliament member from the Jatiya Party in 1996.

Later, he joined the BNP and became president of its district unit.

In the 2001, 2008, and 2018 elections, he ran for the Derai-Shalla seat from the party.

Looking at the votes from these three elections, it is clear that the BNP averaged around 70,000 votes in this area, more than a third of the total voters.

The BNP leaders say some of these voters will not vote since the party is staying away from the polls.

However, the grassroots leaders of the Awami League believe both candidates will try to win over these votes for themselves.

Amirul Haque, joint general secretary of the BNP's Derai Upazila committee, said that his party is not participating in what they consider a one-sided election by the government.

They are actively involved in an anti-election movement and have instructed their leaders and activists to avoid what they view as a fake election.

Prashant Das Sagar, general secretary of the Derai Upazila committee of the cultural organisation Khelaghar, mentioned that Joya is anticipated to receive votes not just from the Awami League but also from other political parties, common people, and professional organisations.

He added that if she can sustain this support, a win is probable.

Asked about his position, AL candidate Al Amin said this seat is typically known for the boat symbol.

No matter what, the boat will win this seat, he affirmed.

“However, I don't find it a challenge, even though my leader's wife is running against the boat.

“It's embarrassing for me.”

"I visited her home to extend my greetings after receiving the nomination. She was quite upset with me at that time,” said Al Amin.

“Joya is a good person, and some local leaders of our party convinced her to run as a candidate by offering a different interpretation."

For her part, Joya remarked, "The candidate nominated with the boat symbol is controversial, corrupt, and oppressive. That's why I decided to run as a candidate, responding to the call of grassroots activists and ordinary people."

Joya asserted that she could secure over 40,000 votes and win if the election is fair, but there are concerns about possible rigging.

"I am also a member of the Awami League, and our leader Sheikh Hasina has declared an open election.”

“I've met her. I hope the administration ensures a fair election, and my victory is inevitable if it's fair."