The outcome of Bangladesh's national election on Sunday -- an easy victory for incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League party -- was widely considered a foregone conclusion, especially with the main opposition boycotting.

Much less certain, analysts say, is what happens next, especially when it comes to Dhaka's increasingly strained relations with the West. While the U.S. took a sharply critical view in the run-up to the election, China and Russia have been quick to throw their weight behind Hasina's win.

In more ways than one, by securing a record fourth straight five-year term in what many consider questionable circumstances, Hasina has pushed the South Asian nation into uncharted territory. "Historically, elections tended to resolve political uncertainty in Bangladesh -- irrespective of whether they were free and fair or one-sided," said Jyoti Rahman, an Australia-based Bangladeshi economist. "This time, however, the election might aggravate uncertainty."

Some doubts concern the post-election domestic political landscape. For the first time, independent candidates collectively placed second, rather than any political party. This creates a conundrum over who will form a parliamentary opposition as almost all the independent contestants were previously rejected for Awami League nominations and then asked to stand against the party's "selected candidates" to give the polls an air of legitimate competitiveness.

This risks creating a rift within the party and among its allies. But experts say Hasina might soon face bigger international challenges, too.

Often dubbed an "iron lady," the 76-year-old Hasina has been accused by rights groups and Western countries of suppressing the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and other critics through violent crackdowns and legal tangles.

Hasina on Sunday insisted, "I am trying my best to ensure that democracy should continue in this country."

On Monday, she told reporters that she wanted to focus on the economy. Regarding the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party's election boycott, she said: "Each political party has right to take a decision. The absence of one party in election does not mean democracy is absent."

But months before the polls, the U.S. had said it was enforcing visa restrictions on anyone deemed to undermine the democratic process in Bangladesh. It has also imposed sanctions on Bangladesh paramilitaries for human rights violations. Scattered election day violence and allegations of significant voting irregularities seemed unlikely to persuade Washington to soften its approach.

On the contrary, the economist Rahman said there is particular uncertainty over "whether there might be any punitive steps from the U.S." Many fear the largest client of Bangladesh's multibillion-dollar garment industry might impose trade penalties for the country's failure to hold inclusive polls.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina speaks to foreign observers and journalists at her residence in Dhaka on Jan. 8.   © Reuters

Rahman said any measures targeted at the country's garment sector, or against key businesspeople, could add to the country's economic woes as its foreign reserves decline. The garment sector recently went through a rocky few weeks, with violent protests over the minimum wage that resulted in multiple worker deaths and factory closures.

Within days of resolving that crisis and factories reopening, a clause a U.S. buyer added to a letter of credit for a Bangladeshi supplier stirred fresh anxiety among textile barons. The letter said the buyer would not be liable for paying for a shipment if the U.S. government imposes trade sanctions.

"One can't overstate enough the blow that trade sanctions from the West would inflict on Bangladesh's sputtering economy," Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, told Nikkei Asia.

Kugelman stressed that, for now, such concerns are "still hypothetical."

But he said, "If there is immediate economic fallout for Bangladesh post-election, it will likely be because of heightened political tensions and possible unrest that could deter foreign investors, and in a worst-case scenario impede trade and even basic economic activities at home."

Niaz Asadullah, professor of economics at Monash University, Malaysia, also sees a risk of further political instability leading to economic consequences.

"With the new government seemingly lacking the people's mandate and resorting to further repressive measures, there will be a crisis of policy credibility," Asadullah told Nikkei. "This will also create new challenges for implementing reforms that are necessary for the disbursement of further loans by the multilateral bodies such as the IMF."

Bangladesh late last year cleared the first review of the $4.7 billion loan it took from the International Monetary Fund to shore up its reserves, which have been hit by the inflationary effects of the pandemic and the Ukraine war.

In this context, trade sanctions by the West could come as a painful shock, Asadullah added.

Some analysts also believe that by antagonizing the West with allegedly dubious elections -- the 2014 and 2018 polls were also widely criticized -- Bangladesh could be costing itself future investments and business collaborations.

"Bangladesh used to be a flawed democracy in the past," said Shafquat Rabbee, a U.S.-based Bangladeshi geopolitical analyst. "But with this latest manufactured, one-sided election, the risk managers around the world will categorize Bangladesh into the same league of nations that closely resemble Russia, China or North Korea now."

Rabbee said that "this will surely hamper the country's future foreign direct investments and trade partnerships, with or without a new round of Western sanctions." Rabbee did say he thinks economywide sanctions are unlikely from the Americans. But "targeted sanctions on a handful of oligarchs, security officials and kleptocrats are more likely than not."

The pressure could lead to other geopolitical complications, as Bangladesh is seen as a strategic asset for democracies like India and Japan as they look to counter Chinese influence in the region. Dhaka may become more inclined to lean on China as well as Russia.

Garment industry workers protest for higher wages in Dhaka on Nov. 12.   © Reuters

On Monday, Yao Wen, China's Ambassador to Bangladesh, was among the first foreign dignitaries to go to Hasina's residence and congratulate her for winning the election. Local media reported that he said China will support Bangladesh in protecting its sovereignty and in opposing external interference.

Earlier, Andrey Shutov, a member of the Russian Election Commission who headed the country's observer mission to Bangladesh, was the first to tell the media that the election was "legitimate."

Humayun Kabir, Bangladesh's former ambassador to the U.S., told Nikkei that Hasina has "very skillfully handled intense U.S. pressure" by mustering support from a "coalition of backers like China and Russia," which from the onset had criticized Washington for interfering in Bangladeshi politics.

"It seems to work well so far. Besides, [Hasina] always had backup from India, which considered her as the best option for Bangladesh," Kabir said. "But it's now uncertain how the U.S. will show its reaction. The government has no option but to play the 'wait and see' game now."