Shefali Begum, a labourer toiling on the trawlers of Amin Bazar, is well aware of the upcoming national elections. Yet, she wonders what the advent of the new year might mean for her. Will 2024 herald a change in her fortune, or will it be just another date on the calendar?
As Shefali reflects on the turn of the year, she says, "In my life, there's little difference between the new and the old. I toil every day for my livelihood. But with the market's condition, it seems our luck isn't changing for the better."
For many like Shefali living on the margins, the new year is less a celebration and more a time for introspection and uncertainty. Will 2024 bring a reprieve in inflation? Might the economic repercussions of global conflicts ease? Will Bangladesh's economy rebound from its current challenges, and can we hope for a respite from public health crises like the dengue outbreak that marred 2023?
These questions linger as the nation approaches the important Jan 7 vote. What will the elections yield, and what lies beyond them? Will political stability continue to elude the country?
"The year is ending with political disagreements, which is concerning. However, the election is proceeding as scheduled, and the new year is poised between these two realities," said Shantanu Majumder, a professor of political science at Dhaka University.
He urged citizens not to expect miracles in the new year but to hope for strengthening liberal democratic values within society, advocating for a community that upholds diversity, harmony, and fundamental principles of the Liberation War.
IS THERE A SILVER LINING FOR BANGLADESH'S ECONOMY?
As fresh produce hits the market, daily wage labourer Hossain Ali hesitates to purchase even basic vegetables, deterred by the soaring prices. The cost of living, particularly the price of staples like potatoes, has been a significant burden for families like his. The past year's escalating prices have left Hossain concerned about what lies ahead.
"Feeding my family is a struggle. Without a day's work, we face hardship. How do we cope?"
The persistent price hikes have impacted the lives of many throughout 2023.
Ahsan H Mansur, director of the Policy Research Institute, believes the economic challenges of the past year may persist into 2024. He outlined several factors contributing to the economic strain, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the shockwaves from the Russia-Ukraine war, which have impeded Bangladesh's growth.
Infrastructure development, expected to progress rapidly, is also constrained by global realities. Commodity export growth, once at 6.67 percent, barely surpassed one percent, while imports have dropped by over 20 percent in 2023.
Even expatriate income, resilient during the pandemic, is mired in uncertainty. Foreign exchange reserves and foreign direct investment are declining, contributing to uncontrolled inflation, reaching 9.49 percent by the end of 2023.
"Issues like the currency exchange rate, inflation, and the government's revenue collection or reserves will continue to pose challenges in the new year," said Mansur.
With foreign reserves depleting significantly from $40 billion to below $20 billion, he called for immediate action to halt the decline.
But the economist remains cautiously optimistic. "The new year brings fears but also possibilities. It's crucial how the new government confronts these lingering issues."
Mansur advises the next government to urgently address critical issues such as inflation, fiscal deficit, bad loans, money laundering, and the banking sector governance crisis.
Highlighting the government's inability to settle many liabilities this year, Mansur pointed to the significant debts accrued in various sectors. "We cannot afford these payments due to depleted reserves, but they must be prioritised in the coming year."
POLITICAL TENSIONS RISE AHEAD OF ELECTION
The political landscape of Bangladesh, which remained relatively tranquil during the pandemic, has once again become a cauldron of tension as the country gears up for the 2023 elections. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies intensified their anti-government protests, while the ruling Awami League countered with its own agenda, leading to a simmering political climate.
Throughout the year, the BNP conducted peaceful demonstrations calling for a caretaker government to oversee the elections. However, the situation escalated dramatically during a mass rally on Oct 28, which descended into violence as BNP supporters clashed with the police.
In response, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir declared a nationwide strike, followed by a 48-hour blockade protesting the arrest of key figures within the party.
The ensuing hartals and blockades reignited memories of similar unrest a decade prior, with around 300 vehicles being torched across the nation since Oct 28, resulting in four fatalities in a train fire.
The BNP and its allies have a history of election boycotts, notably abstaining from the 2014 parliamentary elections, which saw the Awami League form government amid widespread violence.
The start of 2015 saw three months of hartals and blockades, leading to hundreds of deaths in petrol bomb explosions and vehicle arson.
As the Jan 7 polls approach, with 27 parties, including the Awami League and Jatiya Party, participating, the possibility of a peaceful election remains uncertain. Public concern grows over the potential for post-election stability and its implications for the country's future.
Nahida Khan Banya, a private insurance company official, is concerned that the ongoing political instability and the strained relationship between the main parties might herald a challenging 2024, potentially exacerbating the economic situation.
Similarly, Shahid Matbar, a small-scale fruit vendor, fears the repercussions of continued unrest on individuals with limited capital, saying, "If our customers are struggling, it directly affects our livelihood."
UNCERTAINTY SHROUDS 2024
Veteran journalist Mozammel Hossain Manju predicts a year of instability for Bangladesh in 2024. "Next year will undoubtedly be unstable. The national election, a significant political event, marks the beginning of the year, setting the stage for uncertainty."
"The election will determine the government for the next five years. However, with the absence of the BNP and several other parties, and unilateral preparations by those in power, the integrity of the polls is under scrutiny," Manju added.
He also highlighted the international focus on Bangladesh's elections, with Western powers advocating for a free, fair, and participatory process, adding another layer of complexity to the domestic situation.
Manju anticipates that 2024 will be a year marked by geopolitical shifts and domestic challenges, potentially leading to a multifaceted crisis encompassing politics and the economy.
In contrast, Prof Shantanu Majumder holds a slightly more optimistic view, downplaying the fear of political instability. He emphasises the need to address the growing inequality and rampant price hikes. "The political opposition may remain controlled, but unchecked inequality could lead to a perilous situation," Prof Majumder said.
He acknowledges that a segment of society will likely remain discontented, a reality that must be navigated carefully. "Being unhappy is one thing; supporting instability is another. We hope all parties, ruling and opposition alike, will adhere to democratic principles."
Prof Majumder also pointed out that amid the political tumult, critical issues like product pricing and food adulteration are being overshadowed, yet they profoundly impact public life.
"The state has a crucial role in making life bearable for its citizens. It's vital to ensure public well-being beyond the political fray."
ECONOMIC PROGRESS BRINGS HOPE
In the last decade, Bangladesh has achieved a significant milestone in its economic journey, progressing from a less developed to a developing country. With several major infrastructure projects reaching completion, 2024 is anticipated to be a year when citizens begin to reap the benefits.
A landmark moment for Chattogam occurred on Oct 27 with the inauguration of the Bangabandhu Tunnel beneath the Karnaphuli River, creating a rapid three-minute connection from Patenga to Anwara. In Dhaka, a portion of the Dhaka Elevated Expressway was unveiled, offering a much-needed solution to the city's chronic traffic congestion.
The launch of rail connectivity over the Padma multi-purpose bridge has transformed travel, linking Dhaka to the tourist haven of Cox's Bazar and fulfilling a long-held aspiration of the people. Additionally, the 'soft opening' of the third terminal at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport and Bangladesh's foray into nuclear energy with the Rooppur plant in Pabna signify strides in modernization and energy.
Human rights activist Khushi Kabir remains hopeful, despite the challenges ahead. She believes in a future where development is synonymous with peace and where the upcoming government will foster an environment for open dialogue, addressing the needs and aspirations of the people, particularly concerning wages, prices, and general well-being.
Echoing this sentiment, former vice-chancellor of Dhaka University AMS Arefin Siddique looks forward to a 'Smart Bangladesh', calling for unity to achieve this vision.
Prof Harun-or-Rashid, former vice-chancellor of National University, views the accomplishments of 2023 as a foundation for continued progress in 2024, expressing optimism about the government's development initiatives and improvements in infrastructure and financial well-being.
However, he emphasised the need for citizens to have the freedom to express themselves, greater accountability, and a reduction in intimidation, human rights violations, and undemocratic practices. He envisions a more transparent society, fostering peace for its residents.
Courtesy:bdnews24.com
